* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 123 120 117 107 100 96 92 81 67 66 62 58 56 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 125 123 120 117 107 100 96 92 81 67 66 62 58 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 127 125 123 119 112 102 93 84 70 56 50 46 42 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 18 17 14 16 23 25 27 38 50 47 41 42 26 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 3 10 4 4 5 10 14 6 4 -5 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 286 277 254 247 246 236 233 237 230 244 234 244 237 225 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.0 27.8 26.7 24.9 23.6 21.0 20.1 17.8 16.4 16.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 161 161 163 154 137 125 110 101 89 86 78 73 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -49.9 -49.7 -50.2 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 65 66 65 72 73 71 63 62 65 68 69 77 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 36 39 40 42 45 49 49 44 46 44 39 36 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 48 48 43 32 29 69 136 152 228 258 282 272 281 227 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 19 43 59 96 91 88 155 186 174 16 74 85 71 41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 9 16 32 52 52 31 78 -15 17 -55 -62 -69 -56 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1533 1508 1491 1493 1507 1701 1663 1342 1216 1395 1618 1005 455 103 -1 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.7 25.7 28.5 32.0 35.6 39.3 42.4 44.8 46.5 47.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.3 48.9 49.4 50.0 50.0 49.1 46.6 42.0 36.4 29.3 21.2 12.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 16 19 24 26 27 29 30 25 16 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 30 30 26 23 16 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -14. -27. -40. -54. -65. -73. -80. -86. -90. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -18. -21. -19. -17. -15. -9. -4. 1. 9. 16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 17. 17. 9. 11. 7. -1. -5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -8. -18. -25. -29. -33. -44. -58. -59. -63. -67. -69. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 21.9 47.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.2% 1.2% 1.6% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/04/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 35( 60) 32( 73) 27( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 87 71( 96) 35( 98) 3( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 125 123 120 117 107 100 96 92 81 67 66 62 58 44 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 122 119 116 106 99 95 91 80 66 65 61 57 43 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 115 105 98 94 90 79 65 64 60 56 42 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 102 95 91 87 76 62 61 57 53 39 DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 96 89 85 81 70 56 55 51 47 33 DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 125 116 110 107 101 94 90 86 75 61 60 56 52 38 DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 125 123 114 108 104 97 93 89 78 64 63 59 55 41 DIS DIS