* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 127 124 121 113 105 99 93 87 71 59 53 56 61 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 128 127 124 121 113 105 99 93 87 71 59 53 56 53 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 127 126 124 122 116 107 98 90 78 63 49 42 40 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 15 16 15 21 24 24 29 47 50 50 60 51 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 0 -1 0 7 2 3 8 9 10 7 0 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 307 285 273 261 261 248 238 242 236 246 242 247 240 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.4 27.6 26.3 24.1 22.4 21.4 19.7 17.5 17.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 161 162 160 145 135 122 104 94 90 84 79 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -48.8 -49.2 -49.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.1 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 64 64 64 68 72 75 69 59 57 66 74 73 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 37 37 38 41 42 44 47 50 46 41 37 37 39 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 60 62 57 49 39 99 130 178 216 243 295 261 235 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 56 37 46 37 77 67 122 167 153 62 35 36 69 69 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 5 14 15 39 60 37 38 -12 25 -10 31 11 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1579 1536 1497 1472 1458 1542 1801 1559 1302 1288 1549 1413 881 406 -18 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.9 22.6 23.5 24.4 26.6 29.7 33.1 36.7 40.2 43.3 45.5 46.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.1 47.8 48.4 49.0 49.7 50.3 49.9 48.3 44.8 39.8 33.7 26.8 19.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 17 21 25 27 27 27 28 30 31 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 30 31 28 22 11 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -12. -24. -37. -50. -61. -69. -76. -83. -88. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -7. -4. 0. 8. 16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 9. 1. -6. -7. -4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -4. -12. -20. -26. -32. -38. -54. -66. -72. -69. -64. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 21.1 47.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 638.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.5% 3.6% 4.2% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 15 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/04/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 41( 63) 34( 76) 30( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 92 85( 99) 66(100) 12(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 128 127 124 121 113 105 99 93 87 71 59 53 56 53 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 123 120 117 109 101 95 89 83 67 55 49 52 49 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 115 107 99 93 87 81 65 53 47 50 47 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 104 96 90 84 78 62 50 44 47 44 DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 98 90 84 78 72 56 44 38 41 38 DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 128 119 113 110 106 98 92 86 80 64 52 46 49 46 DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 128 127 118 112 108 100 94 88 82 66 54 48 51 48 DIS DIS