* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 110 111 108 104 99 94 89 88 87 77 72 64 51 43 49 V (KT) LAND 110 110 110 111 108 104 99 94 89 88 87 77 72 64 51 43 49 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 109 108 108 108 107 99 89 82 75 63 54 46 40 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 10 14 14 27 27 25 30 41 46 32 44 43 37 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 -2 5 2 6 5 4 16 11 11 5 5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 271 275 306 285 282 260 256 256 231 243 235 227 220 238 235 234 220 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 28.5 27.6 26.3 24.1 22.6 21.0 19.2 17.7 16.7 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 152 155 158 162 160 146 135 122 104 95 88 81 77 75 76 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -50.7 -49.1 -49.4 -51.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.7 2.2 2.5 0.9 0.5 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 65 63 65 66 69 73 76 79 72 65 68 74 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 34 37 37 38 42 43 44 47 51 50 49 46 38 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 62 62 64 61 62 60 42 35 83 128 156 210 279 325 325 266 194 200 MB DIV 78 80 63 48 43 62 91 55 100 188 195 115 63 62 76 57 67 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -6 -1 0 13 37 59 36 61 36 -31 -68 -82 -63 -14 -55 LAND (KM) 1671 1635 1600 1542 1491 1452 1534 1778 1570 1307 1281 1519 1437 910 480 152 23 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.7 24.3 26.6 29.5 33.0 36.6 40.2 43.3 45.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.3 47.0 47.8 48.5 49.7 50.4 50.0 48.3 44.9 39.9 34.1 27.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 11 13 17 20 25 27 27 26 23 22 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 28 30 28 22 13 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -23. -32. -40. -48. -54. -61. -65. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -0. 5. 10. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 9. 15. 13. 11. 4. -7. -16. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -22. -23. -33. -38. -46. -59. -67. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.1 45.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 13.5% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.6% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 9.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.6% 7.3% 6.8% 2.1% .5% 1.0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/03/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 28( 64) 26( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 71 87( 96) 85( 99) 66(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 110 111 108 104 99 94 89 88 87 77 72 64 51 43 49 18HR AGO 110 109 109 110 107 103 98 93 88 87 86 76 71 63 50 42 48 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 104 100 95 90 85 84 83 73 68 60 47 39 45 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 97 93 88 83 78 77 76 66 61 53 40 32 38 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 82 77 72 71 70 60 55 47 34 26 32 IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 89 84 79 74 73 72 62 57 49 36 28 34 IN 12HR 110 110 110 101 95 91 86 81 76 75 74 64 59 51 38 30 36