* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 111 113 113 113 108 103 102 93 89 89 82 75 78 66 55 52 V (KT) LAND 105 111 113 113 113 108 103 102 93 89 89 82 75 78 66 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 113 113 112 111 111 106 94 85 80 72 61 53 47 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 8 9 14 22 26 26 24 36 44 36 25 31 53 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 1 4 6 7 7 6 8 16 4 1 6 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 271 284 287 305 289 273 248 254 243 230 231 218 221 223 260 240 237 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.0 28.0 27.1 25.4 23.9 21.6 20.8 19.6 17.3 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 152 155 160 163 153 139 129 113 103 89 84 81 78 75 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -50.6 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -50.6 -49.8 -51.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.8 2.8 1.9 1.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 63 64 64 66 67 70 73 76 72 56 51 56 56 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 34 35 36 38 43 42 44 50 52 50 53 45 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 61 62 59 56 50 41 36 95 125 184 276 294 271 238 152 200 MB DIV 93 95 95 67 51 64 64 61 86 165 171 191 25 47 41 24 32 700-850 TADV 3 5 0 -8 -5 9 34 51 52 42 29 -54 -25 -81 -79 -125 -131 LAND (KM) 1725 1693 1666 1619 1552 1491 1501 1679 1716 1402 1228 1306 1616 1318 1014 543 90 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.6 22.2 23.8 25.6 28.3 31.5 34.9 38.4 41.9 45.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 45.4 46.0 46.8 47.7 49.0 50.0 50.1 49.2 47.0 43.1 38.0 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 15 18 21 25 27 24 17 19 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 27 27 28 30 24 17 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -12. -19. -27. -34. -41. -47. -54. -59. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -3. -2. 0. 5. 9. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 9. 11. 19. 22. 17. 19. 8. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 8. 8. 3. -2. -3. -12. -15. -16. -23. -30. -27. -39. -50. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.6 44.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 12.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.41 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.6% 31.3% 27.8% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 16.1% 8.3% 3.1% 1.2% 2.2% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 23.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.0% 17.1% 12.5% 7.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 41.0% 33.0% 30.0% 19.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 30.5% 25.0% 21.2% 13.3% 2.2% 2.3% .8% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/03/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 30( 49) 30( 64) 28( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 39 64( 78) 83( 96) 70( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 111 113 113 113 108 103 102 93 89 89 82 75 78 66 55 52 18HR AGO 105 104 106 106 106 101 96 95 86 82 82 75 68 71 59 48 45 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 101 96 91 90 81 77 77 70 63 66 54 43 40 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 90 85 84 75 71 71 64 57 60 48 37 34 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 76 75 66 62 62 55 48 51 39 28 25 IN 6HR 105 111 102 96 93 90 85 84 75 71 71 64 57 60 48 37 34 IN 12HR 105 111 113 104 98 94 89 88 79 75 75 68 61 64 52 41 38