* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 115 116 114 110 109 104 101 92 85 88 81 81 74 59 48 V (KT) LAND 105 112 115 116 114 110 109 104 101 92 85 88 81 81 74 59 48 V (KT) LGEM 105 113 115 114 113 111 111 108 99 86 81 77 66 56 49 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 9 9 15 15 26 27 29 25 45 42 30 17 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 3 2 0 4 4 6 4 9 12 11 5 5 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 237 273 274 266 276 279 248 249 251 234 234 216 223 200 255 240 221 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.3 28.2 27.5 26.2 24.3 21.3 19.7 19.7 18.2 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 146 150 153 158 162 158 142 133 120 106 89 81 81 79 74 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 -50.7 -49.8 -49.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.4 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 65 64 64 64 60 64 64 68 71 74 76 65 53 59 64 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 35 34 35 39 40 44 43 44 52 52 53 48 39 30 850 MB ENV VOR 59 60 63 63 65 54 66 34 44 94 116 166 185 285 289 367 337 200 MB DIV 89 108 111 94 74 36 71 69 93 107 152 185 99 34 33 28 53 700-850 TADV 3 4 8 0 -6 -3 15 35 55 51 67 7 0 -102 -55 -109 -17 LAND (KM) 1762 1726 1696 1651 1590 1511 1456 1569 1813 1514 1222 1174 1462 1485 1146 686 86 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.8 23.2 24.7 27.1 30.1 33.4 37.0 40.6 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.2 44.9 45.5 46.3 47.2 48.5 49.9 50.4 50.2 48.9 46.0 41.1 34.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 14 16 19 24 29 26 18 19 24 27 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 27 28 30 27 21 11 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -18. -26. -32. -38. -45. -51. -57. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 8. 13. 12. 13. 24. 22. 22. 15. 2. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 11. 9. 5. 4. -1. -4. -13. -20. -17. -24. -24. -31. -46. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.3 44.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 14.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.41 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.4% 37.2% 32.3% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.6% 34.9% 21.4% 12.1% 5.5% 7.5% 3.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 22.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.1% 24.4% 18.2% 11.6% 1.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 30.0% 26.0% 20.0% 10.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 27.5% 25.2% 19.1% 10.8% 1.9% 2.7% 1.5% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/03/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 31( 50) 30( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 32 39( 59) 48( 78) 27( 84) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 112 115 116 114 110 109 104 101 92 85 88 81 81 74 59 48 18HR AGO 105 104 107 108 106 102 101 96 93 84 77 80 73 73 66 51 40 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 100 96 95 90 87 78 71 74 67 67 60 45 34 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 89 88 83 80 71 64 67 60 60 53 38 27 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 82 81 76 73 64 57 60 53 53 46 31 20 IN 6HR 105 112 103 97 94 89 88 83 80 71 64 67 60 60 53 38 27 IN 12HR 105 112 115 106 100 96 95 90 87 78 71 74 67 67 60 45 34