* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 93 95 96 95 93 91 88 81 83 82 71 62 57 50 V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 93 95 96 95 93 91 88 81 83 82 71 62 57 50 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 88 90 91 94 96 97 94 84 75 73 68 56 47 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 10 8 10 10 19 27 27 20 23 37 41 41 54 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 3 3 0 9 8 8 7 6 7 14 12 13 -3 6 SHEAR DIR 311 237 255 271 276 287 262 250 253 253 233 242 233 233 239 234 223 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.0 27.6 27.3 25.9 23.7 20.5 20.5 17.3 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 148 149 157 162 163 153 134 131 118 101 86 85 76 73 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -50.5 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 61 61 63 62 65 64 67 70 72 70 55 47 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 31 34 33 34 35 37 39 41 39 44 48 44 39 35 30 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 61 62 61 59 52 45 32 30 61 91 110 170 175 200 262 200 MB DIV 109 88 94 95 89 37 58 92 107 87 93 140 173 21 36 17 5 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 2 0 0 3 24 55 55 64 60 22 -24 -12 -108 -163 LAND (KM) 1779 1740 1691 1651 1618 1522 1445 1466 1637 1713 1398 1173 1210 1493 1315 807 380 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.0 22.2 23.8 25.7 28.4 31.4 34.6 38.1 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.4 45.2 45.9 46.6 48.0 49.5 50.5 50.8 50.1 48.3 44.7 39.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 20 25 27 26 24 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 27 28 29 31 25 19 7 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 8. 14. 19. 11. 4. -2. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 11. 8. 1. 3. 2. -9. -18. -23. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.6 43.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 26.1% 16.7% 9.8% 7.8% 12.8% 12.8% 14.0% Logistic: 7.2% 17.6% 8.4% 4.7% 2.5% 5.7% 3.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 16.3% 7.5% 3.1% 2.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 17.1% 9.4% 5.8% 3.7% 6.4% 5.4% 4.9% DTOPS: 42.0% 78.0% 67.0% 62.0% 39.0% 38.0% 10.0% 2.0% SDCON: 26.6% 47.5% 38.2% 33.9% 21.3% 22.2% 7.7% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/02/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 11( 17) 17( 31) 19( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 7( 13) 19( 29) 24( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 85 89 93 95 96 95 93 91 88 81 83 82 71 62 57 50 18HR AGO 80 79 83 87 89 90 89 87 85 82 75 77 76 65 56 51 44 12HR AGO 80 77 76 80 82 83 82 80 78 75 68 70 69 58 49 44 37 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 73 72 70 68 65 58 60 59 48 39 34 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 85 76 70 67 67 66 64 62 59 52 54 53 42 33 28 21 IN 12HR 80 85 89 80 74 70 69 67 65 62 55 57 56 45 36 31 24