* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 76 82 88 96 100 106 104 104 101 97 89 82 77 68 61 V (KT) LAND 65 69 76 82 88 96 100 106 104 104 101 97 89 82 77 68 61 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 72 77 82 92 100 106 110 111 104 90 78 69 61 51 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 2 5 9 6 15 13 21 33 32 25 34 53 57 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 5 3 1 0 -5 2 7 4 2 0 10 14 3 4 SHEAR DIR 296 300 341 30 18 300 296 293 266 248 249 237 236 246 241 246 252 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.1 27.8 27.1 25.7 23.8 21.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 145 148 150 146 150 157 160 163 155 137 129 115 101 91 87 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.2 -49.8 -50.1 -50.8 -52.4 -51.9 -51.2 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 68 66 65 66 63 66 65 62 65 71 71 61 51 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 32 32 34 36 40 41 44 47 49 48 48 49 46 41 850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 63 66 72 72 88 88 93 91 85 113 148 179 226 228 219 200 MB DIV 86 74 94 117 110 71 73 65 62 92 60 64 95 125 148 47 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 6 2 4 2 2 10 35 47 29 40 117 89 11 12 LAND (KM) 1806 1801 1799 1795 1797 1705 1615 1506 1458 1482 1621 1738 1417 1209 1236 1541 1343 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.8 20.8 22.0 23.7 25.7 28.2 31.2 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.2 42.0 42.8 43.6 45.0 46.5 48.1 49.3 50.3 50.8 49.9 47.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 12 14 18 21 23 24 26 28 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 25 26 26 28 29 31 24 19 7 3 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 11. 12. 16. 20. 23. 20. 18. 18. 12. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 17. 23. 31. 35. 41. 39. 39. 36. 32. 24. 17. 12. 3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.4 40.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.58 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.41 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 37.7% 24.2% 14.7% 9.5% 18.6% 17.6% 21.8% Logistic: 9.4% 22.0% 11.0% 6.1% 3.2% 5.7% 7.5% 3.8% Bayesian: 11.2% 21.6% 9.2% 4.8% 4.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% Consensus: 9.2% 27.1% 14.8% 8.6% 5.9% 9.2% 8.7% 8.6% DTOPS: 21.0% 75.0% 52.0% 32.0% 15.0% 64.0% 68.0% 21.0% SDCON: 15.1% 51.0% 33.4% 20.3% 10.4% 36.6% 38.3% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/02/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 11( 17) 19( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 10( 12) 49( 55) 25( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 76 82 88 96 100 106 104 104 101 97 89 82 77 68 61 18HR AGO 65 64 71 77 83 91 95 101 99 99 96 92 84 77 72 63 56 12HR AGO 65 62 61 67 73 81 85 91 89 89 86 82 74 67 62 53 46 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 61 69 73 79 77 77 74 70 62 55 50 41 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT