* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 79 86 93 101 102 106 101 101 98 91 85 83 84 79 69 V (KT) LAND 65 72 79 86 93 101 102 106 101 101 98 91 85 83 84 79 69 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 76 81 86 96 103 109 111 112 111 100 85 77 73 63 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 6 5 4 4 9 12 14 27 35 27 25 38 62 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 1 3 5 4 -2 4 3 6 0 2 0 13 15 3 SHEAR DIR 303 307 347 5 48 322 300 303 278 257 253 252 233 233 241 247 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.5 27.5 27.3 24.8 23.3 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 145 150 148 148 153 160 163 159 145 133 132 108 97 84 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.0 -51.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -51.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 69 67 67 65 64 65 64 67 64 62 64 72 74 65 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 30 31 34 34 37 36 41 43 44 45 46 50 51 45 850 MB ENV VOR 68 71 69 71 68 65 72 80 72 88 91 75 91 177 237 258 158 200 MB DIV 111 81 81 111 120 82 63 70 73 105 113 66 82 138 150 68 19 700-850 TADV -9 -7 1 4 4 2 2 3 5 16 40 59 31 48 162 98 12 LAND (KM) 1818 1783 1755 1757 1757 1721 1629 1549 1445 1393 1450 1644 1679 1339 1084 1132 1380 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.0 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.5 24.2 26.5 29.0 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.7 40.6 41.5 42.3 43.1 44.5 46.0 47.5 48.9 50.3 51.4 51.4 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 17 23 24 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 24 25 26 27 27 29 32 30 25 18 7 3 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. -0. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 9. 14. 18. 18. 17. 18. 21. 21. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 13. 8. 3. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 28. 36. 37. 41. 36. 36. 33. 26. 20. 18. 19. 14. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.9 39.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.42 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 53.1% 39.1% 27.5% 18.7% 35.2% 24.0% 22.3% Logistic: 18.1% 32.9% 20.4% 16.5% 6.9% 17.2% 10.5% 5.9% Bayesian: 34.4% 36.6% 33.2% 22.0% 10.3% 9.2% 2.6% 0.1% Consensus: 23.4% 40.9% 30.9% 22.0% 12.0% 20.5% 12.4% 9.5% DTOPS: 24.0% 71.0% 42.0% 30.0% 24.0% 61.0% 39.0% 14.0% SDCON: 23.7% 55.9% 36.4% 26.0% 18.0% 40.7% 25.7% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/01/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 7( 9) 14( 22) 23( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 10( 11) 36( 43) 31( 61) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 72 79 86 93 101 102 106 101 101 98 91 85 83 84 79 69 18HR AGO 65 64 71 78 85 93 94 98 93 93 90 83 77 75 76 71 61 12HR AGO 65 62 61 68 75 83 84 88 83 83 80 73 67 65 66 61 51 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 62 70 71 75 70 70 67 60 54 52 53 48 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT