* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 77 85 93 98 103 105 107 106 104 99 94 87 85 81 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 77 85 93 98 103 105 107 106 104 99 94 87 85 81 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 74 79 88 98 105 109 111 112 106 95 80 70 65 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 5 8 8 7 9 13 11 20 24 29 17 16 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 2 0 1 0 -3 -2 0 4 8 2 7 4 0 5 SHEAR DIR 303 276 301 353 10 46 316 305 290 274 238 242 235 244 248 230 238 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.1 27.2 26.2 24.7 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 148 147 147 149 148 149 155 161 162 156 140 129 119 107 90 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 4 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 69 68 66 65 68 67 69 67 63 66 66 74 71 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 29 32 33 34 37 39 42 45 48 50 50 49 52 53 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 78 81 86 79 82 91 81 84 80 70 68 73 104 117 161 200 MB DIV 99 132 92 97 132 127 53 52 72 80 108 114 83 49 129 114 116 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -5 1 1 1 3 1 -4 6 20 35 40 20 55 49 -8 LAND (KM) 1829 1794 1765 1740 1721 1721 1670 1594 1534 1464 1454 1605 1841 1538 1266 1149 1257 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.4 21.6 23.2 25.1 27.5 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 39.6 40.4 41.4 42.4 43.8 45.1 46.5 47.7 49.0 50.2 50.3 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 11 10 8 9 9 9 11 11 14 16 17 19 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 23 24 26 27 27 28 29 32 26 21 10 4 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 21. 25. 25. 24. 21. 23. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 25. 33. 38. 43. 45. 47. 46. 44. 40. 34. 27. 25. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.0 38.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.64 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.49 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 38.5% 23.8% 10.0% 7.4% 20.6% 21.8% 24.6% Logistic: 4.6% 11.7% 5.0% 2.9% 1.0% 4.3% 5.0% 4.0% Bayesian: 22.1% 7.7% 4.4% 1.0% 0.5% 6.6% 3.5% 1.3% Consensus: 10.9% 19.3% 11.1% 4.7% 3.0% 10.5% 10.1% 9.9% DTOPS: 13.0% 29.0% 13.0% 13.0% 9.0% 12.0% 23.0% 28.0% SDCON: 11.9% 24.1% 12.0% 8.8% 6.0% 11.2% 16.5% 18.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/01/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/01/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 10( 14) 14( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 8( 9) 19( 26) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 71 77 85 93 98 103 105 107 106 104 99 94 87 85 81 18HR AGO 60 59 64 70 78 86 91 96 98 100 99 97 92 87 80 78 74 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 70 78 83 88 90 92 91 89 84 79 72 70 66 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 58 66 71 76 78 80 79 77 72 67 60 58 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT