* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/01/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 63 70 77 89 97 105 107 109 110 107 101 96 89 82 79 V (KT) LAND 50 55 63 70 77 89 97 105 107 109 110 107 101 96 89 82 79 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 64 71 83 97 107 111 112 111 108 99 86 72 63 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 0 3 10 8 7 9 9 11 26 38 36 31 41 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 4 5 5 -1 3 0 1 0 0 1 -1 2 4 10 4 SHEAR DIR 332 350 11 87 51 42 59 351 338 268 275 265 258 244 224 229 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.1 27.0 26.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 155 153 150 145 151 148 148 152 158 161 155 141 127 119 106 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -50.3 -50.5 -51.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 71 68 66 67 63 66 66 70 70 66 66 64 49 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 30 30 32 34 38 39 42 45 47 48 49 49 49 52 850 MB ENV VOR 84 91 94 89 92 106 100 97 103 97 109 109 107 129 132 152 154 200 MB DIV 67 95 120 143 124 141 107 77 60 94 101 83 71 76 93 92 36 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -8 -6 -6 5 4 1 1 6 11 37 53 32 12 -12 -7 LAND (KM) 1938 1904 1826 1780 1741 1716 1714 1695 1630 1577 1509 1515 1629 1851 1526 1302 1186 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.7 17.8 19.1 20.4 21.7 22.9 24.8 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.3 38.4 39.3 40.3 42.1 43.5 44.8 46.1 47.3 48.4 49.3 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 11 13 17 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 26 26 24 25 28 27 27 28 31 27 20 10 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 13. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 20. 27. 39. 47. 55. 57. 59. 60. 57. 51. 46. 39. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.2 36.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/01/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.64 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 43.8% 26.7% 10.0% 7.4% 28.7% 31.2% 33.1% Logistic: 6.8% 30.7% 16.0% 8.3% 4.0% 11.6% 11.0% 10.4% Bayesian: 3.4% 17.6% 10.8% 2.5% 1.6% 13.9% 24.0% 11.3% Consensus: 5.3% 30.7% 17.8% 6.9% 4.3% 18.1% 22.1% 18.2% DTOPS: 10.0% 28.0% 11.0% 10.0% 6.0% 23.0% 31.0% 57.0% SDCON: 7.6% 29.3% 14.4% 8.4% 5.1% 20.5% 26.5% 37.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/01/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/01/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 6( 6) 11( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 12( 12) 11( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 63 70 77 89 97 105 107 109 110 107 101 96 89 82 79 18HR AGO 50 49 57 64 71 83 91 99 101 103 104 101 95 90 83 76 73 12HR AGO 50 47 46 53 60 72 80 88 90 92 93 90 84 79 72 65 62 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 47 59 67 75 77 79 80 77 71 66 59 52 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT