* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 09/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 67 75 84 97 107 112 114 115 110 110 104 99 92 87 81 V (KT) LAND 50 58 67 75 84 97 107 112 114 115 110 110 104 99 92 87 81 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 65 72 80 96 108 114 118 117 115 113 105 96 83 70 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 12 11 5 5 8 9 16 25 31 35 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 3 1 4 2 4 6 5 0 7 SHEAR DIR 346 347 8 25 38 70 56 56 15 328 275 278 265 267 242 234 246 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.0 28.1 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 157 159 157 153 146 151 148 147 151 157 161 154 141 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -50.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 75 76 73 72 70 70 69 67 69 71 73 71 67 68 67 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 27 28 29 32 35 37 39 42 43 47 48 49 48 50 50 850 MB ENV VOR 83 86 88 92 89 88 88 88 98 108 104 112 116 98 86 132 140 200 MB DIV 72 79 93 123 152 164 155 97 102 38 85 92 79 84 128 125 90 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -5 -8 -7 0 5 3 6 2 5 23 36 57 42 19 20 LAND (KM) 1896 1878 1852 1780 1713 1664 1678 1698 1685 1620 1585 1526 1539 1722 1807 1542 1369 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 15.2 16.5 17.7 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.6 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.3 37.5 38.5 39.5 41.0 42.4 43.6 44.9 46.1 47.1 48.1 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 9 12 16 18 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 24 26 26 25 26 28 27 28 28 30 28 19 9 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 22. 23. 29. 28. 27. 25. 24. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 19. 15. 9. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 25. 34. 47. 57. 62. 64. 65. 60. 60. 54. 49. 42. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.5 35.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 09/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.61 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 56.2% 38.2% 22.7% 8.1% 39.7% 45.7% 50.3% Logistic: 13.9% 45.3% 24.3% 10.5% 5.5% 17.6% 16.7% 22.9% Bayesian: 19.6% 72.6% 44.2% 16.6% 15.6% 41.8% 14.5% 33.0% Consensus: 13.6% 58.0% 35.6% 16.6% 9.7% 33.0% 25.6% 35.4% DTOPS: 25.0% 59.0% 30.0% 31.0% 8.0% 17.0% 26.0% 65.0% SDCON: 19.3% 58.5% 32.8% 23.8% 8.8% 25.0% 25.8% 50.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 09/30/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 09/30/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 9( 12) 20( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 10( 11) 22( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 58 67 75 84 97 107 112 114 115 110 110 104 99 92 87 81 18HR AGO 50 49 58 66 75 88 98 103 105 106 101 101 95 90 83 78 72 12HR AGO 50 47 46 54 63 76 86 91 93 94 89 89 83 78 71 66 60 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 49 62 72 77 79 80 75 75 69 64 57 52 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT