* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 09/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 66 74 86 98 107 112 116 121 122 120 116 110 101 98 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 66 74 86 98 107 112 116 121 122 120 116 110 101 98 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 65 73 90 107 115 118 119 119 116 113 103 90 78 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 3 6 11 15 11 6 3 7 8 18 24 25 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -2 -2 -4 2 2 7 3 5 3 3 0 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 13 11 8 60 70 88 65 43 350 1 264 263 247 254 240 235 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 28.6 28.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 158 160 155 151 150 149 147 149 155 160 163 147 140 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 73 76 77 75 68 65 68 67 69 69 72 69 67 65 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 22 23 26 30 34 37 41 47 50 53 54 53 51 53 850 MB ENV VOR 75 82 88 93 96 93 104 94 98 105 102 110 122 103 104 96 115 200 MB DIV 57 54 54 50 126 155 172 102 97 68 60 110 115 99 55 92 167 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -4 -4 -6 -6 -1 0 1 2 1 11 20 31 33 29 19 LAND (KM) 1813 1880 1855 1837 1762 1663 1649 1680 1686 1620 1586 1546 1510 1606 1835 1759 1478 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.6 15.7 17.1 18.3 19.4 20.6 22.0 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.4 36.6 37.6 38.6 40.4 41.8 43.1 44.6 45.7 46.7 47.7 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 8 9 10 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 24 26 25 26 28 28 28 28 29 31 24 16 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 25. 34. 38. 39. 38. 36. 30. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 21. 29. 41. 53. 62. 67. 71. 76. 77. 75. 71. 65. 56. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.4 34.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 09/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 51.8% 35.4% 22.1% 7.8% 37.9% 48.4% 59.2% Logistic: 15.4% 56.0% 35.9% 12.9% 8.5% 25.3% 30.0% 33.6% Bayesian: 16.0% 69.9% 32.7% 8.3% 6.1% 29.1% 38.8% 59.8% Consensus: 12.8% 59.2% 34.7% 14.4% 7.5% 30.8% 39.0% 50.8% DTOPS: 8.0% 23.0% 12.0% 17.0% 5.0% 9.0% 20.0% 28.0% SDCON: 10.4% 41.1% 23.3% 15.7% 6.2% 19.9% 29.5% 39.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 09/30/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 10( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 9( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 58 66 74 86 98 107 112 116 121 122 120 116 110 101 98 18HR AGO 45 44 50 58 66 78 90 99 104 108 113 114 112 108 102 93 90 12HR AGO 45 42 41 49 57 69 81 90 95 99 104 105 103 99 93 84 81 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 43 55 67 76 81 85 90 91 89 85 79 70 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT