* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122024 09/30/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 47 58 70 83 93 100 108 111 117 114 110 101 98 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 47 58 70 83 93 100 108 111 117 114 110 101 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 40 48 58 71 82 92 100 105 104 99 91 78 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 4 5 7 12 9 3 6 6 7 9 21 33 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 0 0 -3 4 6 4 4 6 4 3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 35 5 355 354 73 63 102 74 69 311 275 256 249 246 251 246 243 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 156 157 155 150 147 150 146 149 153 158 161 151 139 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.8 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 73 74 70 66 66 65 66 66 70 73 74 70 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 23 25 27 28 32 35 38 43 45 51 51 54 52 52 850 MB ENV VOR 70 72 79 85 88 87 93 96 93 101 111 107 115 105 95 69 72 200 MB DIV 44 52 55 44 68 122 145 129 76 70 51 58 97 135 95 31 89 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -6 -4 -4 -5 1 3 0 1 1 1 13 37 47 39 29 LAND (KM) 1732 1839 1934 1923 1849 1726 1684 1707 1751 1681 1618 1556 1522 1570 1733 1844 1675 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.7 15.7 17.0 18.5 19.9 21.0 22.0 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.6 35.6 36.8 37.9 39.7 41.3 42.6 43.9 45.3 46.6 47.6 48.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 8 13 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 20 22 25 26 25 27 27 27 28 29 31 27 18 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 39. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 23. 30. 32. 38. 36. 37. 32. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 28. 40. 53. 63. 70. 78. 81. 87. 84. 80. 71. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 33.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 TWELVE 09/30/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 16.8% 10.6% 7.2% 4.8% 12.0% 14.3% 30.5% Logistic: 5.2% 26.2% 13.9% 3.8% 2.3% 12.2% 18.2% 24.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 10.2% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3% 20.1% 28.6% Consensus: 2.8% 17.7% 9.3% 3.8% 2.4% 8.8% 17.5% 28.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 8.0% 53.0% SDCON: 2.4% 15.3% 7.1% 2.9% 1.7% 7.4% 12.7% 40.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 TWELVE 09/30/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 47 58 70 83 93 100 108 111 117 114 110 101 98 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 43 54 66 79 89 96 104 107 113 110 106 97 94 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 47 59 72 82 89 97 100 106 103 99 90 87 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 37 49 62 72 79 87 90 96 93 89 80 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT