* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122024 09/30/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 64 75 89 97 102 107 107 110 109 104 98 91 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 64 75 89 97 102 107 107 110 109 104 98 91 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 41 51 62 75 87 95 100 101 98 93 85 74 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 6 9 9 7 10 13 15 17 25 23 33 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 5 4 3 2 1 7 0 2 8 8 4 7 2 1 SHEAR DIR 48 24 9 6 1 16 44 53 54 280 282 274 261 247 247 244 234 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 152 154 154 153 149 145 150 146 146 151 158 160 154 141 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 69 70 68 66 62 63 61 65 66 69 68 62 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 21 22 26 28 32 35 37 41 43 47 49 50 50 49 850 MB ENV VOR 83 76 81 83 89 98 91 104 96 99 118 122 130 133 113 71 52 200 MB DIV 62 44 61 74 78 114 129 124 81 58 40 51 57 51 58 71 47 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -8 -6 -3 -6 -3 3 1 0 1 -1 9 11 14 17 7 LAND (KM) 1646 1736 1827 1954 1950 1789 1711 1716 1786 1755 1687 1620 1571 1581 1679 1892 1635 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.7 18.4 19.6 20.6 21.8 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.6 34.5 35.7 36.9 39.1 40.7 42.1 43.2 44.4 45.6 46.9 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 11 10 8 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 20 22 26 24 25 26 26 27 28 30 26 20 13 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 39. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 17. 21. 25. 30. 32. 36. 37. 36. 33. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 34. 45. 59. 67. 72. 77. 77. 80. 79. 74. 68. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 32.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 TWELVE 09/30/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 16.7% 10.5% 7.2% 4.7% 11.5% 13.0% 23.9% Logistic: 4.9% 17.5% 9.4% 3.0% 1.3% 6.3% 6.9% 8.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 6.7% 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.9% 7.2% 14.4% Consensus: 2.8% 13.6% 7.8% 3.5% 2.1% 6.6% 9.1% 15.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 25.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.0% 8.0% 51.0% SDCON: 3.4% 19.3% 7.9% 3.7% 2.0% 6.3% 8.5% 33.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 TWELVE 09/30/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 50 64 75 89 97 102 107 107 110 109 104 98 91 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 45 59 70 84 92 97 102 102 105 104 99 93 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 51 62 76 84 89 94 94 97 96 91 85 78 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 40 51 65 73 78 83 83 86 85 80 74 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT