* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122024 09/29/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 47 53 66 77 89 96 98 103 107 108 109 106 101 97 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 47 53 66 77 89 96 98 103 107 108 109 106 101 97 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 56 69 83 93 100 106 108 107 105 100 92 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 9 6 7 14 14 14 7 3 6 10 14 27 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 5 3 0 -1 -1 3 5 4 3 5 5 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 58 44 37 27 38 36 50 71 49 69 317 286 282 264 259 253 226 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 153 152 155 158 156 155 151 151 148 146 151 156 159 155 141 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 71 74 71 67 66 67 67 69 69 70 72 69 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 20 22 25 27 32 33 34 38 42 44 47 49 50 51 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 81 88 88 93 97 104 113 114 117 130 140 144 153 147 158 200 MB DIV 33 64 57 52 67 82 142 169 135 80 76 68 70 101 146 65 92 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -8 -6 -3 0 0 4 4 2 2 5 10 39 39 17 LAND (KM) 1572 1670 1768 1880 1891 1807 1682 1626 1610 1661 1715 1668 1590 1547 1600 1735 1907 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 20 21 25 26 25 29 29 27 27 28 30 28 20 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. 42. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 20. 25. 30. 31. 33. 35. 33. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 17. 23. 36. 47. 60. 66. 68. 73. 77. 78. 79. 76. 71. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 32.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 TWELVE 09/29/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 17.8% 11.5% 8.1% 5.2% 12.0% 13.4% 25.9% Logistic: 9.1% 34.9% 20.7% 11.4% 7.4% 19.0% 22.9% 41.7% Bayesian: 2.9% 33.1% 10.8% 1.3% 0.8% 7.9% 21.3% 44.3% Consensus: 5.1% 28.6% 14.3% 6.9% 4.5% 13.0% 19.2% 37.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 25.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.0% 18.0% SDCON: 4.0% 26.8% 11.1% 4.9% 2.7% 9.0% 13.6% 27.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 TWELVE 09/29/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 47 53 66 77 89 96 98 103 107 108 109 106 101 97 18HR AGO 30 29 35 42 48 61 72 84 91 93 98 102 103 104 101 96 92 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 39 52 63 75 82 84 89 93 94 95 92 87 83 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 39 50 62 69 71 76 80 81 82 79 74 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT