* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL112024 09/29/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 34 35 35 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 34 35 35 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 33 31 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 18 15 19 13 18 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 9 7 3 8 6 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 219 227 219 224 260 251 256 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 157 158 159 159 159 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 52 47 46 49 48 45 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 3 -5 3 7 5 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -8 0 0 -1 35 27 16 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 3 3 3 0 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1556 1508 1444 1426 1409 1419 1440 1487 1534 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.8 23.5 24.1 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.1 47.9 48.6 48.9 49.2 49.3 49.4 49.2 49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 32 33 33 33 33 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 47.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112024 JOYCE 09/29/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.34 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 5.7% 3.5% 3.1% 1.8% 6.0% 4.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .8% 1.5% 1.1% .5% .8% 1.0% .8% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112024 JOYCE 09/29/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112024 JOYCE 09/29/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 36 34 34 35 35 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 35 35 36 36 36 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 34 35 35 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 31 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT