* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL112024 09/28/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 42 41 38 36 36 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 42 41 38 36 36 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 40 37 34 33 32 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 19 20 15 17 12 24 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 8 6 3 7 3 5 3 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 196 200 202 205 217 253 261 259 271 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 151 152 155 158 159 158 159 159 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 52 54 48 49 47 47 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 10 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 4 -3 6 10 0 5 0 -4 -3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 35 0 -12 -13 0 -12 36 -10 -28 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 0 0 1 3 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1693 1610 1530 1478 1429 1375 1345 1372 1374 1382 1395 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.9 45.8 46.8 47.5 48.2 49.1 49.6 49.5 49.6 49.6 49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 31 33 34 36 35 35 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.3 44.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112024 JOYCE 09/28/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.58 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.96 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.8% 6.2% 4.9% 3.3% 7.7% 7.5% 11.3% Logistic: 1.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.2% 3.2% 3.1% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112024 JOYCE 09/28/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112024 JOYCE 09/28/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 43 42 41 38 36 36 36 34 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 40 37 35 35 35 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 36 34 34 34 32 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 29 29 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT