* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL112024 09/28/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 50 47 44 43 44 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 50 47 44 43 44 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 49 46 43 41 40 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 19 19 18 14 14 13 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 9 10 6 3 5 2 4 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 192 191 188 198 204 215 260 248 253 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 151 154 157 159 159 158 158 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 51 52 49 47 45 45 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 11 0 11 12 14 7 22 36 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 87 29 -1 -9 -4 -17 19 17 -4 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1740 1653 1568 1505 1446 1373 1314 1335 1362 1401 1436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.2 46.1 46.9 47.7 48.9 49.7 49.7 49.6 49.4 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 31 32 35 36 36 35 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.7 44.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112024 JOYCE 09/28/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.28 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.0% 9.1% 7.0% 4.6% 9.6% 9.6% 13.8% Logistic: 3.2% 4.5% 2.6% 2.3% 0.9% 3.3% 2.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.6% 4.5% 3.2% 1.9% 4.6% 4.4% 5.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 4.3% 2.7% 2.1% .9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112024 JOYCE 09/28/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112024 JOYCE 09/28/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 51 50 47 44 43 44 42 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 46 43 40 39 40 38 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 38 35 34 35 33 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 28 27 28 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT