* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL112024 09/27/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 54 54 52 49 47 47 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 54 54 52 49 47 47 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 55 55 52 48 45 44 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 18 20 18 17 15 10 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 11 10 9 2 6 5 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 176 185 184 184 191 208 245 261 250 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 150 152 155 158 160 160 156 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 52 50 53 47 47 44 42 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 14 11 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 41 28 15 10 15 9 19 21 40 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 103 92 31 -9 -20 3 0 35 -14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1758 1721 1650 1570 1492 1411 1363 1359 1436 1491 1519 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.5 20.2 21.2 22.0 23.2 23.8 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.5 44.4 45.3 46.2 47.1 48.4 49.3 49.6 49.3 49.0 48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 35 33 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 43.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112024 JOYCE 09/27/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.5% 10.2% 7.6% 4.9% 10.3% 10.6% 14.6% Logistic: 4.6% 8.1% 4.2% 3.0% 1.3% 5.5% 2.9% 2.4% Bayesian: 4.8% 5.3% 3.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.6% 6.1% 3.9% 2.1% 5.7% 5.1% 5.7% DTOPS: 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.9% 7.3% 5.0% 3.9% 1.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112024 JOYCE 09/27/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112024 JOYCE 09/27/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 54 54 52 49 47 47 45 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 48 49 49 47 44 42 42 40 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 40 37 35 35 33 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 30 28 28 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT