* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL112024 09/27/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 43 43 42 41 41 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 43 43 42 41 41 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 41 40 37 35 34 33 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 17 18 15 15 16 18 19 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 12 9 6 6 6 3 3 0 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 176 190 191 200 204 223 234 256 242 257 265 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 148 148 149 152 156 160 159 157 157 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 56 54 52 51 50 50 47 43 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 14 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 42 36 24 10 6 4 2 10 29 42 64 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 65 91 80 18 -16 -9 9 19 28 -2 -12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1788 1769 1727 1655 1586 1477 1408 1381 1434 1482 1500 1533 1587 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 33 33 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 42.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112024 JOYCE 09/27/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 13.4% 8.6% 6.2% 3.8% 8.8% 8.8% 13.3% Logistic: 2.9% 6.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.9% 4.1% 3.4% 4.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 7.7% 4.2% 2.7% 1.6% 4.5% 4.4% 5.9% DTOPS: 10.0% 42.0% 31.0% 25.0% 16.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.1% 24.8% 17.6% 13.8% 8.8% 5.2% 2.7% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112024 JOYCE 09/27/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112024 JOYCE 09/27/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 42 44 43 43 42 41 41 41 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 39 39 38 37 37 37 37 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 34 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 26 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT