* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 40 38 40 36 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 40 38 40 36 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 39 37 34 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 48 62 62 64 50 46 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 -6 -3 -2 -5 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 265 269 270 264 257 278 288 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.7 20.6 21.0 20.5 19.4 17.4 15.7 15.0 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 83 84 81 78 72 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 -55.4 -54.8 -54.1 -54.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 59 61 60 51 37 39 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 21 19 18 20 18 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 76 72 61 60 65 21 -32 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -4 19 33 35 42 -4 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 18 23 31 38 35 31 38 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1675 1518 1361 1227 1096 912 791 704 622 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.6 45.3 46.0 46.9 47.8 49.8 51.6 53.2 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.0 28.3 26.5 25.3 24.1 22.8 21.8 20.6 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -11. -19. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -10. -14. -21. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 44.6 30.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 68.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/30/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 43 40 38 40 36 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 45 42 40 42 38 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 43 39 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 40 36 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT