* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/30/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 44 41 38 41 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 44 41 38 41 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 48 44 41 38 36 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 44 44 58 58 55 38 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 7 -4 -4 -4 -5 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 259 263 267 270 253 259 278 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.7 21.6 20.4 20.9 19.9 17.2 16.1 14.9 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 87 82 83 80 72 70 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 54 57 56 42 36 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 24 22 20 19 23 18 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 85 75 70 54 64 57 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 -3 -16 18 34 15 27 1 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 14 15 26 28 27 28 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1628 1640 1469 1316 1166 956 851 774 650 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.5 45.2 45.9 46.8 47.6 49.7 51.7 53.3 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.0 30.1 28.1 26.6 25.0 23.4 22.7 21.7 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 12 11 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -16. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -14. -20. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 44.5 32.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/30/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/30/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 48 44 41 38 41 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 50 46 43 40 43 37 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 44 41 44 38 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 39 42 36 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT