* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/30/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 43 39 34 37 36 31 32 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 43 39 34 37 36 31 32 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 44 40 36 35 34 33 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 38 47 48 61 60 37 33 36 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 4 -4 0 -4 0 -1 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 252 259 263 269 258 256 280 284 278 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 21.7 21.6 20.3 20.9 19.2 17.1 15.8 14.8 13.9 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 87 86 82 83 77 72 69 68 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.3 -55.3 -55.9 -56.2 -55.6 -55.4 -55.1 -54.4 -51.9 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.7 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 51 55 61 52 40 44 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 26 23 21 17 22 21 18 17 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 103 87 80 69 67 81 38 15 95 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 34 -2 -16 20 32 43 -16 13 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -5 16 17 29 38 33 22 9 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1515 1636 1643 1482 1322 1095 920 817 733 626 457 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.9 46.6 48.3 50.3 52.4 53.9 56.3 59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.7 31.9 30.0 28.3 26.5 24.5 23.2 22.3 21.2 18.9 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 12 11 11 9 11 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -10. -13. -19. -22. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -18. -19. -24. -23. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 44.1 33.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/30/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/30/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 51 47 43 39 34 37 36 31 32 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 50 46 42 37 40 39 34 35 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 43 38 41 40 35 36 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 41 36 39 38 33 34 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT