* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/29/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 49 44 37 34 37 32 30 37 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 49 44 37 34 37 32 30 37 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 52 48 45 39 37 36 34 33 37 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 38 38 48 50 56 55 34 36 35 41 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 1 0 3 0 -8 -3 0 1 13 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 249 252 255 260 261 250 263 274 274 265 261 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 21.8 21.7 21.7 20.2 20.6 17.8 16.5 14.3 13.8 12.6 11.7 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 86 87 87 81 82 73 71 68 68 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -55.7 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.1 -53.5 -50.8 -49.8 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 2.0 5.1 5.4 4.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 50 52 58 54 44 39 46 48 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 26 23 19 20 23 19 17 20 29 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 106 100 90 84 67 68 53 0 21 121 109 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 39 26 7 3 44 26 23 9 26 2 -27 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 20 13 33 32 35 14 1 2 -4 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1406 1489 1575 1691 1534 1250 1088 968 838 713 579 392 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.5 44.0 44.5 45.2 45.8 47.5 49.6 51.7 53.9 56.1 58.2 60.2 62.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.5 34.1 32.7 30.8 29.0 26.2 25.3 24.4 22.8 20.5 17.9 15.6 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 13 11 11 11 12 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -15. -19. -20. -23. -22. -23. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -3. 0. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -12. -19. -24. -21. -9. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -16. -23. -26. -23. -28. -30. -23. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 43.5 35.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 56 53 49 44 37 34 37 32 30 37 52 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 52 47 40 37 40 35 33 40 55 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 47 40 37 40 35 33 40 55 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 45 38 35 38 33 31 38 53 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT