* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/29/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 53 49 39 28 30 30 28 28 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 53 49 39 28 30 30 28 28 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 53 50 43 38 36 36 34 36 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 36 38 47 58 59 41 39 38 38 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -1 2 2 0 -4 -1 0 0 10 13 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 241 255 255 257 267 255 255 270 276 268 257 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.9 22.0 21.7 21.7 20.6 19.2 16.9 15.1 14.3 13.2 12.3 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 91 87 86 87 82 77 72 69 69 67 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.4 -55.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -54.9 -55.1 -54.3 -53.5 -51.2 -49.6 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 -0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.7 5.4 5.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 53 52 53 56 60 50 41 47 52 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 29 28 26 20 17 20 20 18 17 28 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 109 108 101 92 78 63 54 31 31 109 150 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 56 39 21 8 31 50 46 2 23 33 -18 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 3 2 -3 16 31 46 73 35 11 0 -10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1384 1461 1542 1637 1663 1369 1148 1026 938 792 667 449 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.9 43.4 43.8 44.5 45.1 46.8 48.7 50.9 52.9 55.1 57.4 59.4 60.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.2 34.9 33.5 31.9 30.3 27.4 25.6 25.0 24.1 22.1 19.6 17.5 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 12 11 11 11 13 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -22. -25. -29. -29. -30. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -5. -0. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -17. -20. -25. -29. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -16. -26. -37. -35. -35. -37. -37. -19. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.9 36.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 58 53 49 39 28 30 30 28 28 46 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 56 52 42 31 33 33 31 31 49 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 52 42 31 33 33 31 31 49 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 41 30 32 32 30 30 48 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT