* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/29/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 57 53 43 31 29 32 28 28 32 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 57 53 43 31 29 32 28 28 32 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 60 56 52 45 39 37 37 34 33 37 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 26 27 34 36 48 56 48 38 41 39 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 2 4 -1 -7 -3 -2 1 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 218 236 256 255 259 256 250 266 268 264 260 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.1 22.8 21.7 21.7 20.1 19.7 17.0 16.1 14.0 13.7 13.0 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 92 91 86 86 80 78 71 70 67 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.8 -56.5 -56.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -55.0 -54.5 -51.8 -49.7 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.3 3.9 4.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 50 52 51 57 53 43 41 55 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 32 30 28 23 18 20 22 18 15 17 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 91 103 104 94 73 61 55 48 6 74 163 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 45 58 40 15 -6 50 25 33 34 71 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 0 -1 -4 16 35 46 42 26 27 11 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1357 1402 1451 1539 1632 1521 1302 1156 1055 964 879 679 566 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.3 42.9 43.5 44.1 44.6 46.0 48.0 50.0 51.8 53.8 55.8 57.4 58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.0 35.9 34.9 33.4 31.9 29.0 27.4 26.5 25.7 24.7 23.4 21.3 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -25. -29. -34. -35. -36. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -5. -1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -17. -18. -18. -25. -31. -29. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -27. -39. -41. -38. -42. -42. -38. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 42.3 37.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 61 57 53 43 31 29 32 28 28 32 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 65 61 57 47 35 33 36 32 32 36 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 62 58 48 36 34 37 33 33 37 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 46 34 32 35 31 31 35 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT