* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/29/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 64 61 56 48 37 37 41 39 36 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 64 61 56 48 37 37 41 39 36 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 64 60 57 49 44 43 42 39 38 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 28 28 27 33 42 57 43 27 36 45 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 -1 0 0 6 -2 -1 -5 0 -3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 223 219 233 252 258 262 240 256 264 257 247 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.6 22.5 23.0 21.5 21.7 19.6 17.0 16.0 14.8 13.5 13.2 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 95 89 92 85 86 78 72 69 68 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -57.0 -56.8 -56.7 -56.0 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -54.2 -52.5 -51.0 -48.7 -48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.1 3.3 3.7 5.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 54 53 52 58 61 56 53 56 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 31 31 28 24 20 24 26 24 20 25 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 67 91 107 102 85 65 77 109 110 156 215 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 52 46 69 38 18 46 62 47 54 61 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 10 0 -1 12 42 33 19 24 49 101 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1317 1336 1357 1420 1488 1662 1489 1266 1206 1145 1019 841 711 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.7 42.4 43.0 43.6 44.2 45.3 47.0 49.4 51.1 52.9 54.8 56.3 57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.0 37.3 36.5 35.3 34.0 31.2 29.4 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.1 24.7 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 11 11 11 12 11 9 10 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 13 CX,CY: 8/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -21. -28. -33. -39. -41. -43. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -11. -5. 0. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -13. -12. -17. -25. -18. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -19. -27. -38. -38. -34. -36. -39. -28. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 41.7 38.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/29/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 69 64 61 56 48 37 37 41 39 36 47 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 69 66 61 53 42 42 46 44 41 52 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 63 55 44 44 48 46 43 54 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 60 52 41 41 45 43 40 51 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT