* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/28/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 84 79 74 64 51 37 36 39 37 31 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 84 79 74 64 51 37 36 39 37 31 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 85 80 74 62 53 48 47 44 40 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 33 27 28 35 42 55 45 30 35 35 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 -6 0 0 -1 7 -1 -3 -5 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 216 222 228 220 250 252 250 237 253 249 244 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.0 24.3 24.0 23.1 21.5 21.6 21.1 17.6 15.5 12.8 12.6 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 99 100 98 92 84 84 83 73 69 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.7 -57.2 -57.2 -56.3 -55.7 -55.2 -55.3 -53.7 -52.2 -51.2 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.6 2.8 4.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 56 55 55 52 59 65 59 56 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 31 31 29 25 21 24 27 23 18 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 35 37 59 86 101 89 71 88 112 143 161 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 64 47 32 29 29 28 54 61 44 63 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 14 8 7 -2 15 37 52 31 6 44 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1285 1317 1363 1381 1400 1496 1609 1571 1400 1328 1206 1014 865 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.7 40.6 41.4 42.2 43.0 44.2 45.3 47.1 49.3 51.5 53.6 55.3 56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.4 39.0 37.6 36.8 35.9 33.9 31.9 30.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 10 10 9 9 11 11 11 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -27. -37. -46. -55. -58. -61. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -8. -1. 3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -14. -12. -10. -15. -24. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -16. -26. -39. -53. -54. -51. -53. -59. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 39.7 40.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/28/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -6.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/28/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/28/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 5( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 84 79 74 64 51 37 36 39 37 31 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 80 75 65 52 38 37 40 38 32 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 76 66 53 39 38 41 39 33 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 65 52 38 37 40 38 32 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 48 34 33 36 34 28 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 63 50 36 35 38 36 30 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 84 75 69 65 52 38 37 40 38 32 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS