* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/28/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 87 82 77 69 57 43 34 41 42 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 87 82 77 69 57 43 34 41 42 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 87 82 76 66 57 49 46 45 43 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 27 25 34 30 30 40 53 54 35 30 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 3 -5 -2 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 4 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 235 221 227 236 227 256 250 246 225 253 246 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.5 24.0 24.0 24.2 22.9 21.0 20.9 18.7 16.8 14.6 13.1 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 98 98 99 91 82 82 76 71 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 -56.8 -56.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -55.7 -52.8 -51.4 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 57 59 56 52 50 56 59 61 59 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 31 30 30 26 20 19 25 26 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 48 43 45 70 98 97 73 70 102 117 151 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 47 60 57 49 53 20 26 50 80 19 30 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 14 21 17 1 7 22 46 40 24 39 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1245 1270 1307 1324 1347 1378 1454 1531 1563 1461 1384 1247 1080 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.8 39.6 40.4 41.1 41.8 43.3 44.5 45.9 48.2 50.1 51.8 53.2 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.2 40.8 39.3 38.4 37.5 36.0 34.3 32.7 31.7 31.0 30.5 29.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 10 10 9 9 11 11 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -17. -26. -36. -45. -55. -59. -62. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -10. -3. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -12. -16. -9. -9. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -8. -13. -21. -33. -47. -56. -49. -48. -51. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 38.8 42.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/28/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/28/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/28/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 6( 26) 3( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 87 82 77 69 57 43 34 41 42 39 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 86 81 76 68 56 42 33 40 41 38 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 76 68 56 42 33 40 41 38 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 67 55 41 32 39 40 37 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 63 51 37 28 35 36 33 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 67 55 41 32 39 40 37 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 87 78 72 68 56 42 33 40 41 38 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS