* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/27/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 79 77 74 73 64 53 54 50 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 79 77 74 73 64 53 54 50 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 81 80 78 71 66 58 53 51 46 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 25 28 27 27 33 44 52 49 40 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -2 2 -3 0 1 5 0 -3 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 267 242 234 231 232 236 257 250 247 247 267 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.1 24.2 23.0 21.5 21.6 20.9 17.9 16.4 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 108 105 99 99 91 84 85 82 74 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.5 -55.7 -56.3 -56.3 -57.2 -56.7 -56.5 -56.2 -55.4 -54.9 -53.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 51 54 56 60 59 56 59 76 69 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 28 29 29 30 26 23 28 27 25 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 43 64 57 66 92 99 64 97 131 141 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 7 54 79 73 49 55 19 34 80 76 81 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 14 17 16 17 6 2 17 32 24 30 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1164 1197 1247 1268 1301 1351 1391 1458 1604 1567 1371 1151 897 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.3 40.1 41.6 42.9 44.2 45.2 46.8 49.0 51.1 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.2 44.4 42.6 41.1 39.7 37.6 36.1 34.4 32.0 30.4 29.1 26.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 12 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -24. -31. -39. -43. -47. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -4. -2. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. -0. -6. 0. -1. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -2. -11. -22. -21. -25. -29. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 37.5 46.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.3% 1.3% .6% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 6( 16) 5( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 78 79 77 74 73 64 53 54 50 46 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 75 76 74 71 70 61 50 51 47 43 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 57 46 47 43 39 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 60 59 50 39 40 36 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT