* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/27/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 68 70 73 76 77 75 67 57 60 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 65 68 70 73 76 77 75 67 57 60 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 74 74 70 65 57 52 51 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 18 20 18 31 25 22 25 41 43 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -1 0 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 0 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 244 248 268 241 225 227 235 256 257 274 267 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.0 24.0 24.2 22.9 21.4 21.6 19.5 18.4 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 117 114 107 99 99 90 84 85 78 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 -57.1 -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -56.6 -56.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 46 47 51 56 57 56 52 54 59 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 26 30 31 30 26 24 29 29 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 66 63 49 54 66 64 88 90 65 66 76 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 4 -13 19 42 72 28 64 0 15 39 56 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 4 13 11 12 -2 -5 12 22 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1119 1131 1158 1181 1225 1321 1358 1383 1454 1598 1480 1231 1044 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.3 37.6 38.3 38.9 40.3 42.0 43.2 44.3 45.4 46.8 48.8 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 47.7 46.1 44.3 42.4 39.2 37.2 36.0 34.4 32.0 29.1 26.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 16 15 13 9 8 9 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 2. -2. 4. 3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 15. 7. -3. -0. -4. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.0 49.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.52 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.18 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 7.6% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.3% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.1% 8.6% 5.7% 1.6% .5% .6% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 68 70 73 76 77 75 67 57 60 56 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 62 64 67 70 71 69 61 51 54 50 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 61 64 65 63 55 45 48 44 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 56 57 55 47 37 40 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT