* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 59 63 67 69 68 57 47 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 59 63 67 69 68 57 47 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 57 59 63 65 64 58 52 47 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 16 15 21 24 27 28 27 29 32 54 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 0 -1 -4 -1 -4 -4 4 -8 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 281 238 236 253 231 219 229 255 265 284 310 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 24.5 24.5 23.7 22.5 22.3 21.8 20.7 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 118 115 113 103 102 96 89 89 86 81 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -56.1 -55.6 -55.4 -56.2 -56.4 -57.0 -56.5 -56.2 -56.2 -57.1 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 -0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 44 43 45 51 52 58 60 63 60 62 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 23 27 30 31 31 26 23 26 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 74 78 70 59 73 59 59 84 60 15 -61 -125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 10 17 -13 4 52 60 53 6 6 -33 -26 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 0 0 6 7 6 -4 -2 -3 29 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1085 1094 1116 1144 1189 1287 1400 1501 1615 1672 1379 1167 1057 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.3 37.5 37.9 38.3 39.5 40.9 42.2 43.0 43.6 44.1 44.7 45.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.3 48.9 47.5 45.8 44.0 40.6 37.5 35.1 33.0 29.9 26.3 23.6 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 14 13 10 10 12 12 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 8. 8. 0. -5. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 13. 17. 19. 18. 7. -3. -2. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.1 50.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.18 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.8% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 6.4% 3.9% 1.1% .5% 1.1% .5% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/27/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 58 59 63 67 69 68 57 47 48 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 55 59 63 65 64 53 43 44 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 53 57 59 58 47 37 38 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 45 49 51 50 39 29 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT