* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 57 61 66 64 58 51 45 49 38 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 57 61 66 64 58 51 45 49 38 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 51 55 58 59 56 51 46 43 41 34 27 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 16 21 26 20 32 24 26 28 36 48 56 62 62 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 1 -2 0 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -1 3 -5 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 249 264 229 232 234 219 221 238 255 274 301 320 328 336 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.8 24.9 24.2 23.8 22.8 22.4 21.6 21.2 20.4 19.8 15.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 116 115 113 106 101 98 92 90 86 85 82 81 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -55.7 -55.9 -56.6 -57.1 -56.9 -57.1 -56.6 -57.1 -56.9 -56.8 -55.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 -0.5 0.3 0.8 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 45 44 44 49 50 57 62 61 52 53 44 40 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 23 23 26 27 31 30 27 23 21 27 22 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 81 71 83 68 53 50 38 69 93 59 -45 -83 -49 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -3 12 27 6 26 42 30 37 -33 0 -26 -17 -10 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 0 2 -1 -1 2 -5 -26 -33 -11 -1 -9 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1039 1040 1053 1075 1112 1220 1356 1510 1732 1478 1171 865 565 240 -82 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.4 37.6 37.8 38.1 38.4 39.4 40.7 41.9 42.9 43.5 43.7 43.7 43.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.2 49.9 48.5 46.9 45.4 41.8 38.3 35.2 31.5 27.5 23.7 19.9 16.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 16 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 9. 3. -2. -6. 1. -6. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 21. 19. 13. 6. -0. 4. -7. -19. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.4 51.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.23 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 12.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.2% 8.2% 4.4% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% .5% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 52 54 57 61 66 64 58 51 45 49 38 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 51 54 58 63 61 55 48 42 46 35 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 49 53 58 56 50 43 37 41 30 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 44 49 47 41 34 28 32 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT