* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/26/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 55 56 63 65 66 66 60 58 58 49 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 55 56 63 65 66 66 60 58 58 49 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 53 57 60 62 60 55 51 48 44 38 30 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 21 16 19 24 31 25 27 29 34 40 48 50 62 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 1 0 0 -9 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 235 246 252 233 250 219 214 234 255 272 305 327 342 352 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.2 24.9 24.1 24.1 22.9 22.9 22.2 21.4 20.1 19.1 15.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 120 117 117 106 100 101 93 92 88 86 82 79 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.0 -56.6 -56.6 -57.4 -57.4 -57.4 -57.4 -57.6 -57.5 -56.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 45 47 45 45 49 54 57 63 63 58 41 30 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 22 22 26 27 28 28 26 27 28 25 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 96 83 76 86 70 62 32 52 75 42 -74 -103 -104 -81 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -5 -6 16 15 18 58 29 28 -3 -12 -28 -90 -60 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -5 -8 -2 -7 -8 -7 -5 1 6 13 -4 -29 -22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1051 1044 1050 1067 1095 1182 1314 1482 1724 1563 1344 1034 608 223 -89 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.8 38.0 39.0 40.1 41.2 42.6 43.1 43.1 43.3 43.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.3 50.8 49.4 48.0 46.7 43.0 39.5 36.1 31.8 28.5 25.8 22.0 16.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 13 15 14 16 15 11 12 17 18 18 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 8. 8. 3. 4. 5. -0. -4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 18. 20. 21. 21. 15. 13. 13. 4. -1. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.2 52.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.23 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.2% 4.5% 2.6% .5% 0% .6% .5% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 55 56 63 65 66 66 60 58 58 49 36 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 52 53 60 62 63 63 57 55 55 46 33 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 47 54 56 57 57 51 49 49 40 27 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 38 45 47 48 48 42 40 40 31 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT