* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL102024 09/26/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 55 59 63 67 66 65 59 51 45 46 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 55 59 63 67 66 65 59 51 45 46 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 53 58 62 64 63 58 53 47 43 41 37 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 15 17 16 21 22 33 28 32 31 38 40 54 60 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 0 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 264 234 245 240 238 223 214 224 236 253 263 291 304 315 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.0 24.3 24.0 23.2 22.7 22.2 21.0 20.2 17.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 124 123 119 115 107 102 99 93 91 90 85 81 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.5 -55.9 -56.0 -56.4 -55.9 -56.2 -56.6 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -56.9 -57.2 -56.9 -56.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 -0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 45 46 44 46 49 52 57 54 48 47 40 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 22 24 26 27 27 25 20 18 21 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 105 97 80 74 78 84 66 52 66 76 29 -29 -74 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 13 -8 -6 18 8 41 36 6 30 0 -20 -38 -22 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -5 -4 -6 -2 -9 -19 -20 -23 -32 -24 -20 -14 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1057 1063 1076 1072 1080 1145 1257 1406 1604 1759 1494 1161 732 375 61 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.4 37.6 38.3 39.4 40.8 41.9 42.5 42.8 42.7 42.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.4 52.1 50.9 49.6 48.3 44.9 41.2 37.5 33.9 30.8 27.6 23.5 18.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 15 15 15 13 12 13 18 18 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 3. -4. -9. -4. -7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 22. 21. 20. 14. 6. 0. 1. -4. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.1 53.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.17 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 12.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.6% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.3% 2.3% .5% 0% .6% .5% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102024 ISAAC 09/26/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 53 55 59 63 67 66 65 59 51 45 46 41 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 55 59 63 62 61 55 47 41 42 37 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 49 53 57 56 55 49 41 35 36 31 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 45 49 48 47 41 33 27 28 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT