* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 113 102 89 64 46 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 88 62 46 38 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 95 64 47 38 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 32 33 40 33 18 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 0 -4 1 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 227 224 211 199 220 233 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.0 27.8 27.2 22.7 20.9 20.9 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 157 138 129 90 78 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -48.0 -47.9 -47.4 -48.0 -48.7 -49.1 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 58 53 46 48 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 38 38 35 34 25 20 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 167 168 183 189 185 163 139 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 98 125 156 72 7 18 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 60 44 76 10 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 127 -135 -370 -519 -679 -677 -708 -674 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 31.3 33.9 35.3 36.7 36.8 37.1 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.3 84.4 84.5 85.4 86.3 87.2 87.5 87.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 20 16 9 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 21 CX,CY: 7/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 0. -4. -15. -28. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -19. -24. -27. -26. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -13. -22. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. -2. -13. -26. -51. -69. -84. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 28.7 84.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.5% 1.8% 2.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/27/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/27/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 0( 31) 0( 31) 0( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 88 62 46 38 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 88 72 64 56 54 54 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 115 112 111 95 87 79 77 77 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 97 89 87 87 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 86 86 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 IN 6HR 115 88 79 73 70 66 64 64 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT