* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/26/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 94 92 88 77 62 51 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 90 94 71 52 35 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 90 94 74 52 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 18 33 35 24 13 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 8 3 3 -3 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 200 216 226 221 190 236 234 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.4 29.7 28.8 26.5 22.3 23.3 27.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 174 175 168 154 122 88 90 123 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.2 -48.7 -48.1 -48.1 -48.3 -49.6 -49.7 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 63 52 55 59 46 46 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 38 37 36 33 23 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 157 167 161 167 179 155 141 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 80 61 55 116 63 -9 -3 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 33 45 58 54 -6 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 294 288 137 -119 -324 -675 -598 -569 -599 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 26.6 28.5 31.2 33.8 36.7 36.1 35.8 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.9 85.4 84.9 84.5 84.0 86.6 88.6 87.1 86.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 23 27 21 11 2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 71 36 25 7 5 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. -0. -8. -15. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -9. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -14. -22. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 7. 3. -8. -23. -34. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 24.7 85.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/26/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 372.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.54 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.51 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 17.3% 11.8% 8.4% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.3% 2.8% 4.4% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.6% 15.5% 1.3% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.5% 11.9% 5.8% 5.5% 0.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 11.2% 5.9% 2.9% 2.7% .1% 1.6% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/26/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/26/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 16( 24) 0( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 0( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 90 94 71 52 35 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 88 65 46 29 23 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 58 39 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 56 39 33 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 49 43 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 90 81 75 72 65 59 57 57 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 IN 12HR 85 90 94 85 79 75 69 67 67 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40