* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 94 96 91 85 70 54 40 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 94 96 48 33 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 88 94 97 49 33 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 11 25 33 20 15 29 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 7 6 -3 -1 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 178 197 226 206 207 221 197 245 232 237 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 31.0 30.7 30.3 29.3 27.9 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 174 175 161 139 84 80 79 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 -48.5 -48.3 -48.5 -49.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.8 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 61 54 56 43 46 41 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 37 38 35 32 23 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 96 130 153 156 175 162 146 111 80 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 87 78 86 58 144 20 -19 -22 -21 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 13 24 36 34 52 -2 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 137 283 369 257 37 -450 -686 -667 -666 -675 -695 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 24.1 25.4 27.4 29.4 34.3 36.9 36.7 36.7 36.8 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.4 86.1 85.6 85.0 85.3 87.5 88.9 88.8 88.5 88.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 17 21 23 19 9 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 70 63 31 22 5 5 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -6. -11. -17. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -1. -13. -24. -31. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 21. 16. 10. -5. -21. -35. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.8 86.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/26/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.58 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.87 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 47.0% 32.9% 22.2% 11.8% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.0% 20.7% 21.1% 9.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.6% 7.2% 3.3% 7.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.2% 24.9% 19.1% 13.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 40.0% 43.0% 28.0% 21.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 29.1% 33.9% 23.5% 17.0% 8.7% 2.1% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/26/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/26/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 19( 31) 0( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 1( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 87 94 96 48 33 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 80 87 89 41 26 22 21 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 78 80 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 87 78 72 68 53 49 48 47 47 20 20 20 20 20 20