* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/25/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 72 82 91 109 109 92 78 54 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 63 72 82 91 109 75 42 32 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 69 77 86 103 76 41 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 11 7 8 39 34 17 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 0 0 7 0 0 1 4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 206 182 190 251 211 231 206 244 257 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.4 31.1 30.7 31.0 31.0 30.1 28.8 26.3 21.4 21.4 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 171 172 173 175 152 118 83 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -48.7 -48.1 -47.9 -49.0 -50.2 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.1 3.1 1.2 0.2 1.0 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 77 74 62 54 47 42 47 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 29 31 34 34 42 38 27 24 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 104 110 97 97 147 146 177 152 125 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 101 122 122 116 90 73 85 20 8 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 6 16 43 66 56 -4 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 119 61 39 139 231 210 -179 -532 -664 -687 -673 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.7 23.7 27.1 31.7 35.5 36.7 36.9 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.2 86.5 86.3 86.1 84.8 84.0 85.4 87.5 88.7 89.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 14 21 21 15 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 95 73 49 56 72 30 6 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 6. 13. 12. 0. -6. -18. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 26. 20. 12. 4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 27. 36. 54. 54. 37. 23. -1. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 85.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/25/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 13.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.65 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.77 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 62.4% 42.5% 24.3% 15.0% 44.1% 19.5% 0.0% Logistic: 11.4% 36.9% 18.8% 12.0% 4.8% 15.4% 3.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 23.7% 5.9% 2.8% 3.3% 0.3% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 35.0% 21.4% 13.2% 6.7% 20.9% 7.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 92.0% 77.0% 55.0% 30.0% 99.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 18.4% 63.5% 49.2% 34.1% 18.3% 59.9% 4.8% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/25/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/25/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 12( 16) 28( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 72 82 91 109 75 42 32 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 63 73 82 100 66 33 23 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 61 70 88 54 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 54 72 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT