* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/25/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 66 76 85 100 113 105 88 71 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 57 66 76 85 100 113 57 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 56 63 71 80 98 111 58 36 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 8 8 6 17 37 20 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 1 1 0 10 2 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 235 202 183 195 306 222 231 191 279 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.3 31.4 31.0 30.8 30.9 30.5 29.6 27.0 23.2 21.4 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 171 172 174 166 127 94 84 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.2 -49.6 -48.3 -47.8 -48.2 -49.8 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 79 78 69 58 56 43 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 27 30 31 34 40 34 26 21 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 95 101 108 111 123 151 162 148 118 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 104 77 129 131 81 64 110 70 6 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 1 6 27 54 81 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 121 43 53 120 299 89 -324 -655 -818 -840 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.7 22.5 25.0 29.1 33.6 36.8 38.1 38.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.8 86.4 86.4 86.4 85.5 84.3 84.1 85.8 87.9 90.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 11 17 22 19 14 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 112 97 68 52 51 62 25 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 18. 14. 4. -4. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 27. 27. 21. 12. 4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 26. 36. 50. 63. 55. 38. 21. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.8 85.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/25/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.63 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 56.9% 38.0% 22.3% 7.9% 41.6% 39.4% 20.6% Logistic: 17.0% 48.9% 29.7% 17.4% 6.7% 12.8% 8.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 11.4% 10.8% 3.9% 5.6% 4.0% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.0% 38.9% 23.9% 15.1% 6.2% 19.7% 16.3% 6.9% DTOPS: 16.0% 72.0% 43.0% 38.0% 15.0% 94.0% 88.0% 1.0% SDCON: 14.0% 55.4% 33.4% 26.5% 10.6% 56.8% 52.1% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/25/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/25/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 10( 13) 22( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 66 76 85 100 113 57 36 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 58 68 77 92 105 49 28 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 56 65 80 93 37 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 49 64 77 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT