* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/24/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 54 64 74 87 101 96 75 52 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 46 54 64 74 87 101 70 41 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 58 65 80 95 70 40 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 5 6 4 8 23 33 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 0 3 1 6 9 9 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 262 276 207 180 247 215 228 224 213 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.4 31.3 30.9 30.7 31.0 30.1 28.8 26.0 21.6 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 171 173 175 152 117 87 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.4 -49.0 -48.6 -48.7 -49.4 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.6 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 3 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 78 80 77 79 75 62 59 43 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 24 27 28 34 29 18 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 82 94 91 99 92 136 129 137 90 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 85 96 82 108 118 103 89 106 46 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 -2 2 17 32 85 60 -35 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 264 191 95 41 55 253 221 -145 -449 -782 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.2 21.9 24.0 27.3 31.4 35.4 38.3 40.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.4 86.1 86.4 86.6 86.1 85.0 84.1 84.3 85.8 88.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 14 19 20 18 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 115 110 88 61 44 75 30 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 13. -2. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 26. 20. 12. 4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 24. 34. 47. 61. 56. 35. 12. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.4 84.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/24/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.54 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.89 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 52.3% 35.3% 20.7% 7.5% 35.4% 37.2% 22.1% Logistic: 7.3% 23.7% 9.5% 3.1% 0.9% 4.6% 8.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.4% 11.8% 2.3% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 29.3% 15.7% 8.9% 3.1% 14.0% 15.5% 7.4% DTOPS: 7.0% 22.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.2% 25.6% 10.8% 8.4% 2.5% 9.0% 12.7% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/24/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/24/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 10( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 54 64 74 87 101 70 41 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 47 57 67 80 94 63 34 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 46 56 69 83 52 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 40 53 67 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT