* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092024 09/24/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 41 48 62 76 90 87 62 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 41 48 62 76 90 54 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 38 47 57 67 45 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 13 10 10 10 9 30 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -4 -4 0 -1 11 8 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 272 242 237 237 188 274 209 234 227 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.0 30.5 30.2 27.3 25.8 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 171 171 173 175 131 114 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.0 -49.0 -48.8 -48.5 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 0.8 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 7 8 7 6 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 72 73 77 78 74 66 60 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 20 23 29 33 39 35 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 52 61 85 94 79 95 124 120 146 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 104 107 112 87 110 134 108 132 104 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -5 0 0 0 28 50 111 59 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 265 226 175 121 99 251 134 -233 -470 -748 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.8 22.4 24.6 28.1 32.6 35.8 38.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.3 83.9 84.5 85.0 85.7 85.3 84.2 83.5 84.1 85.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 10 15 20 19 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 107 114 116 114 110 79 66 27 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 27. 24. 5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 16. 12. 7. 2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 18. 32. 46. 60. 57. 32. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 82.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 NINE 09/24/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 112.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.72 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.98 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 17.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 17.3% 23.2% Logistic: 2.2% 16.0% 4.6% 2.3% 1.2% 6.6% 18.1% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% Consensus: 1.6% 11.4% 5.2% 0.8% 0.4% 6.2% 11.9% 9.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 17.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 19.0% 32.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.8% 14.2% 5.1% 1.4% .7% 12.6% 21.9% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 NINE 09/24/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 NINE 09/24/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 41 48 62 76 90 54 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 38 45 59 73 87 51 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 39 53 67 81 45 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 41 55 69 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT