* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092024 09/24/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 48 62 74 87 94 79 54 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 48 62 74 87 74 42 32 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 50 60 73 66 39 30 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 15 9 9 12 7 8 21 31 38 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 1 0 9 -1 0 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 247 255 242 243 207 201 261 226 242 237 228 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.4 28.6 26.2 25.8 21.9 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 170 171 171 172 174 148 117 113 87 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.2 -49.8 -48.9 -49.2 -49.4 -50.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 7 7 7 6 4 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 73 74 76 72 66 53 38 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 18 21 27 30 35 39 31 19 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 56 48 65 83 88 74 114 109 124 106 62 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 80 79 87 84 110 111 121 102 105 51 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 -4 0 -3 7 39 80 56 19 -28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 302 243 215 186 62 208 220 -77 -318 -561 -845 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 21.8 23.9 26.7 30.7 34.0 36.4 38.4 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.1 82.7 83.3 83.9 84.5 85.5 85.6 84.7 83.8 83.8 84.8 86.8 89.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 10 12 17 19 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 99 110 115 115 115 91 80 33 7 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 17. 18. 20. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 30. 20. 2. -13. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 17. 13. 8. 3. -2. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 32. 44. 57. 64. 49. 24. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 82.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 NINE 09/24/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 110.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.71 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.98 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 30.4% 15.3% 8.9% 5.7% 13.3% 24.7% 39.4% Logistic: 3.3% 17.5% 6.3% 2.9% 1.1% 8.5% 16.0% 14.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% Consensus: 2.9% 16.5% 7.3% 4.0% 2.3% 7.4% 13.6% 18.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 6.0% SDCON: 1.9% 11.2% 4.6% 2.5% 1.6% 5.2% 8.3% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 NINE 09/24/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 NINE 09/24/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 48 62 74 87 74 42 32 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 44 58 70 83 70 38 28 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 51 63 76 63 31 21 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 40 52 65 52 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT