* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092024 09/23/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 60 72 87 100 91 69 44 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 60 72 87 100 58 37 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 48 56 67 80 51 34 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 17 12 11 10 6 2 12 28 30 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 3 4 4 -2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 235 240 245 225 231 189 293 241 247 250 251 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 29.8 28.8 26.8 26.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 171 171 172 173 169 151 124 122 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 -48.9 -49.5 -49.9 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 3 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 73 70 70 70 72 72 68 63 37 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 21 28 30 35 41 36 23 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 53 56 54 73 108 70 110 119 99 91 64 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 78 97 102 92 80 114 129 114 74 79 32 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -1 -5 -8 -5 0 4 22 69 99 39 -27 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 334 344 284 239 208 105 166 342 134 -200 -380 -691 -922 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 21.2 22.9 25.4 28.6 32.1 35.5 37.8 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.4 82.9 83.6 84.4 85.6 86.1 85.6 84.4 83.3 82.9 84.9 89.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 15 18 17 15 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 90 124 131 110 109 162 117 132 45 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 14. 21. 30. 23. 5. -13. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -0. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 13. 8. 3. -2. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 30. 42. 57. 70. 61. 39. 14. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.9 81.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 NINE 09/23/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 112.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.73 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.94 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 30.2% 15.2% 8.8% 5.5% 13.3% 28.4% 57.9% Logistic: 2.6% 8.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 2.8% 10.2% 9.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 13.5% 6.1% 3.3% 2.0% 5.5% 13.1% 22.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 34.0% 63.0% 98.0% SDCON: 2.5% 13.2% 5.5% 3.1% 1.5% 19.7% 38.0% 60.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 NINE 09/23/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 NINE 09/23/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 47 60 72 87 100 58 37 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 56 68 83 96 54 33 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 49 61 76 89 47 26 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 38 50 65 78 36 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT