* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092024 09/23/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 65 77 89 92 74 49 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 65 77 89 57 36 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 46 54 64 45 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 16 14 17 15 9 13 29 32 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 4 6 7 -2 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 245 228 239 239 226 195 171 218 223 221 216 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.7 30.6 29.7 29.2 27.4 27.4 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 170 171 171 171 173 167 158 131 130 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.1 -49.5 -48.5 -49.1 -48.7 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 75 72 69 70 70 71 70 68 56 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 19 23 30 33 39 42 33 19 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 48 51 50 89 89 107 144 135 134 113 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 81 77 87 89 67 142 142 86 102 103 47 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 -1 -4 -6 -4 -1 6 38 100 47 11 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 333 300 245 205 117 106 256 169 -234 -486 -792 -915 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 14 20 19 15 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 94 131 116 101 132 145 156 38 4 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 16. 22. 31. 36. 23. 2. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -0. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 14. 11. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 40. 52. 64. 67. 49. 24. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 81.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 NINE 09/23/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 101.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.66 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.99 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 35.5% 20.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 11.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.5% 4.4% 6.8% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 16.0% 8.6% 4.0% 0.2% 1.5% 8.9% 2.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0% 95.0% SDCON: 1.9% 12.0% 5.8% 2.5% .6% 2.2% 8.9% 48.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 NINE 09/23/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 NINE 09/23/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 41 51 65 77 89 57 36 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 47 61 73 85 53 32 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 54 66 78 46 25 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 44 56 68 36 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT