* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082024 09/16/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 45 43 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 37 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 37 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 27 28 18 11 13 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -4 -1 -5 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 232 233 240 202 223 298 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.6 26.0 26.3 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 117 111 115 120 119 118 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 2 1 1 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 60 63 62 62 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 14 13 10 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 53 39 46 48 39 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 38 24 -2 19 57 17 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 18 18 19 9 4 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 54 2 -53 -108 -215 -268 -318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.2 33.5 33.9 34.3 35.1 35.6 36.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.6 79.0 79.4 79.8 80.5 80.7 80.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 3 0 3 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.8 78.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.42 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 11.8% 8.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.3% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 37 33 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 35 31 27 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 31 27 23 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 27 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT