* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082024 09/16/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 41 38 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 38 35 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 29 26 26 18 15 14 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -6 -3 -7 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 253 241 238 245 222 281 283 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 27.8 26.7 25.9 26.3 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 131 119 111 115 120 120 116 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 1 4 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 57 58 60 62 59 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 9 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 61 63 50 54 38 53 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 29 20 32 37 23 31 24 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 19 16 12 18 10 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 102 53 0 -63 -165 -303 -351 -268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.5 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.6 35.8 36.5 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.5 78.9 79.3 79.6 80.3 81.0 80.8 80.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 5 6 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 15 4 0 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.2 78.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.52 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.6% 6.6% 4.9% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 1.7% 1.1% .8% 0% 1.3% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 38 35 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 36 33 27 26 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 32 29 23 22 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 21 20 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT