* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082024 09/16/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 46 44 42 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 40 32 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 42 36 30 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 33 28 24 24 9 10 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -5 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 251 248 240 238 222 240 302 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.3 27.4 26.4 26.0 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 138 126 115 112 121 121 117 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.9 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 4 3 1 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 54 58 61 65 64 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 17 16 11 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 43 55 59 56 40 30 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 30 27 34 0 32 30 12 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 27 25 25 23 13 5 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 182 132 83 35 -14 -145 -312 -404 -424 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.4 32.7 33.1 33.5 34.7 36.1 37.2 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.8 78.2 78.6 78.9 79.2 79.9 80.7 81.1 80.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 22 10 2 0 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.1 77.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.26 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.61 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.2% 5.7% 4.1% 1.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 1.7% 1.1% .7% .2% 1.2% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082024 EIGHT 09/16/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 46 40 32 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 43 37 29 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 31 23 19 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT