* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 09/15/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 44 42 40 38 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 38 31 28 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 35 29 28 27 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 33 35 33 26 21 8 8 7 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -5 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 245 249 251 254 231 237 220 342 298 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 27.9 25.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 154 147 133 111 122 120 116 112 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -54.0 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 3 3 1 2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 50 57 66 69 67 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 16 16 19 16 11 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 47 41 50 51 41 31 11 14 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 21 36 53 45 15 38 32 7 38 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 14 21 37 28 26 13 8 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 231 189 143 96 -11 -163 -358 -521 -540 -457 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 7 9 9 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 72 61 47 35 19 0 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. -1. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.3 77.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 09/15/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.68 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.9% 5.2% 3.8% 0.0% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.0% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .8% 2.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0% .9% .8% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 09/15/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 09/15/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 44 38 31 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 36 29 26 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 31 24 21 21 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT