* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 09/15/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 47 49 48 45 41 35 30 25 37 38 29 27 26 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 47 49 34 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 42 40 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 32 30 29 25 16 18 16 21 18 25 33 35 43 58 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 -1 -6 -3 -6 -1 -4 -3 -3 -9 -16 -11 2 SHEAR DIR 245 238 236 242 250 251 266 245 271 265 288 300 340 331 328 317 260 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 26.4 26.6 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.5 25.6 26.8 27.3 26.8 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 159 162 159 118 122 111 108 106 103 108 110 122 127 123 79 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.6 -55.2 -56.1 -56.2 -55.9 -55.1 -54.2 -54.7 -55.6 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 3 1 2 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 3 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 51 50 53 51 49 49 52 54 52 46 44 47 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 16 17 15 12 9 7 5 4 3 14 18 15 14 9 850 MB ENV VOR 49 42 47 54 42 35 -12 -41 -76 -35 -52 -68 -129 -78 -75 15 -20 200 MB DIV 6 26 13 22 36 20 24 32 22 24 -6 -30 -38 -20 40 50 62 700-850 TADV 0 4 8 8 17 18 30 16 6 7 1 -3 -28 -20 -33 8 50 LAND (KM) 355 333 318 275 222 35 -170 -359 -523 -641 -710 -772 -869 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.7 32.3 34.4 37.0 39.7 42.0 43.6 44.2 43.8 42.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.7 76.9 76.8 76.7 76.6 76.9 77.9 79.1 80.2 80.8 81.3 82.5 84.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 6 8 12 15 13 10 6 3 7 10 10 9 13 21 HEAT CONTENT 64 68 67 70 78 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -15. -17. -20. -5. 0. -4. -5. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 13. 10. 6. -0. -5. -10. 2. 3. -6. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.8 76.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 09/15/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.15 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.79 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.0% 9.1% 7.1% 0.0% 8.7% 7.9% 12.6% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.7% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% 3.0% 2.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.3% 2.6% 2.2% 0% 1.5% 1.3% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 09/15/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 09/15/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 45 47 49 34 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 45 30 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 39 24 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT